Wednesday, August 1, 2007

Wrong Prediction

In 1998, PC World predicted 'executive types of the future may dump traditional laptops for PDA-like Windows CE-based mininotebooks'. The mininotebooks were a stripped-down version of Windows 95 with a smaller keyboard at around $500. This prediction did not come true because 1.) Only simple data input was usable and WiFi capability had not hit yet and 2.) Nobody could predict the handheld convergence with phone service and new technologies such as texting and WiFi. Smaller is not always better if there is not improved capability while harder to use for the same benefit.

~M

3 comments:

Chadwick said...

Michelle - do you think that the smaller hand-held help drive the Wi-Fi market? Palm Pilots were ahead of their time - do you think that they helped pave the way or created the need for high speed connectivity?

I am Michelle. said...

I think the convergence of technology created the need for high speed connectivity. I remember when there were phones, computers, PDA (many types), and various gadgets (MP3 players)causing consumers to push for convergence. I think the convergence of gadgets pushed the WiFi market more than the Palm Pilots alone.

BTW: The reference on the PC World previous blog is http://www.pcworld.com/printable/article/id,127127/printable.html as well as http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_CE

Lyr Lobo said...

We need powerful, portable devices that can access high-speed Internet from any location with seamless support for MP3s, 3D graphics, video, television, GPS, Web 2.0 tools, business applications and more, Michelle!

From afar, Ted must be waving his iPhone at me even as hundreds of Twitter messages are sent to cell phones. *chuckles* We have some of this capability today.

As we move towards increases in available bandwidth, the sophistication and integration of our tools will increase. I'm ready for Second Life (virtual world) access via my cell phone!

For portable and cell devices to be as easy to use as computer systems, we need a comfortably-sized keyboard and the ability to project the screen onto common surfaces.

Have fun! *waves*
Cynthia Calongne
a.k.a. Lyr Lobo and Dr. C.